One month ago, Sask Water executives forecasted excessively dry conditions for the seeding season but that forecast now predicts average to slightly below average precipitation. This forecast, coupled with The Old Farmer's Almanac prediction for precipitation throughout the seeding season, has left producers scratching their heads about what type of seed to plant and when to put the crop in the ground.
"Sask Water slightly modified their view after studying the 1982-83 El Niño. The general view world-wide is that El Niño is almost over so now we're thinking a slightly dry to average season," is what we should expect, said Maynard Sonntag, Minister responsible for Sask Water.
Precipitation patterns in the province are monitored and studied extensively due to their direct impact on the Saskatchewan economy.
"A dry year has a significant impact on revenue. The budget for forest-fire control just explodes. People don't spend much money because they don't have it during a dry year. From a provincial prospective we really have to watch so we don't overspend because we need that cushion," said Sonntag.
However, The Old Farmer's Almanac stands by their forecasts which predicts rain, snowfall and flurries throughout the months of April and May.
"You really can't blame everything on El Niño. We knew about it before the Almanac went to press and factored it into our forecasts," said Susan Peery, managing editor of The Old Farmer's Almanac.
The Old Farmer's Almanac is also forecasting average precipitation. However, if their daily forecasts come true, the ground will have very little time to dry between wet periods.
What does this all mean for producers trying to get their crop in the ground?
It's got Fillmore grain producer Rick Procyk keeping one eye on the sky and the other on the weather channel. "I usually check out the weather channel before I go out in the morning and watch the American systems. That way you have an idea of what might be coming," Procyk said.
Procyk normally starts seeding on May 1 but may begin early if it remains warm and dry.
"It just depends on the weather. If it stays warm and dry I may start early because you want to catch that rain and get the most benefit out of it," he said.
If Procyk waits, and the almanac is right, he may be delayed until at least May 14. The almanac calls for showers, flurries and cool weather until May 13 when the sun is predicted to shine through. Rain and colder temperatures are forecasted once again on May 17.
"An inch can hold you back a couple of days depending on the weather you get after. But some forecasts are so general that it's hard to know what's coming next," Procyk said.
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