The Bank of Montreal's forecast last week that Saskatchewan will lead the country in economic growth this year is a sign the NDP government is doing a good job of managing the economy, said Weyburn-Big Muddy New Democrat candidate Sherry Leach.

Both Saskatchewan Party MLA Brenda Bakken and Liberal candidate Janet Ledingham poured ice water equally on the bank's forecast and Leach's "rosy" view.

The Bank of Montreal said Thursday that Saskatchewan stands to enjoy 5.2 per cent growth this year due to an improved crop season with the end of a prolonged drought. Saskatchewan's growth will be well above the national average of 2.2 per cent for Canada as a whole, and 2.5 per cent in Alberta this year, predicted the bank.

Leach said the NDP government has turned the economy around since 1991 "when we faced bankruptcy."

The province has a triple A credit rating, a climate to encourage investment, 11 straight months of job growth with 18,000 more jobs than this time last year, and increasing consumer confidence, all the factors that voters will look at when they go to the polls this fall, she said.

Locally, the indicators of economic growth are all around us, said Leach.

Saskatchewan Trends Monitor reported recently that from 1996-2001 Weyburn enjoyed the fourth largest rate of job growth of all the cities in the province, she said. With plans for the ethanol plant on stream, Wal-Mart construction, Nexans' export business and WIT performing strongly, it's exciting, she said

Meanwhile, in Ogema, there's zero unemployment and the population is growing as a result of the hog barns built there, she said.

The agricultural rebound will make a difference this year but even with the BSE challenge, Leach said she's very confident about the economy.

"I'm cognizant of BSE and the challenge it represents. I'm hoping it gets sorted out quickly." In the meantime, provincial/federal compensation should be on its way soon and the politicians are working daily to get the borders open.

"The premier and (agriculture minister Clay) Serby are doing a good job trying to minimize the impacts," she said. "I was at the meeting of livestock producers in Minton last week where it was recognized that the issue has moved into the political arena. I'm very concerned about that."

Bakken said she's "very leery" about the bank's prediction. The statistics must have been gathered before the discovery of BSE in one cow that shut the American border to Canadian red meat exports, she said.

"The impact on the economy of that shutdown hasn't even begun to be felt yet and when it is, the bank's prediction will be way off the mark," she said.

"Now we're hearing great concern about the lack of moisture and the grasshopper problem being faced by grain producers. I don't like to be pessimistic but I'm very leery of the bank's forecast."

"But even if Saskatchewan does reach that growth, and I can't imagine it, that still won't meet the 6.8 per cent growth rate predicted in this spring's provincial budget and the whole budget is based on that," said Bakken. "A one per cent difference is a huge amount of money when you're talking about a $6 billion budget."

People continue to leave the province and the business community here continues to be very concerned about the NDP government's lack of understanding of the economy.

Forty per cent of the budget is spent by unelected people managing the Crown corporations and is totally removed from the legislature's control, said Bakken.

"This is unelected people running the province. We have a runaway train here and nobody knows what they're doing."

Ledingham was just as adamant the Bank of Montreal forecast is based on hope rather than good government, and is very unlikely to be reached.

The closed U.S. border has brought the livestock industry to its knees and the bank must be underestimating the impact, said Ledingham.

"BSE has sent a shudder through the whole agricultural industry. People who were planning to invest are seeing how fragile we are in a global economy," she said.

Everybody's plans were upset, from the cow-calf producer to the grain grower who might have sold feed grain crops to Alberta feed lots in past years, to the feedlot owner, she said. Even the compensation for the sale of culled cows will last only until Aug. 31, she said.

"There's nothing to base decisions on. It's a very uncertain period." She predicts the loss of confidence for investors will be a long-term problem requiring risk management programs in consultation with industry.

The bank's prediction is based on the assumption crops will be good and bring economic growth up to its normal rate, all other things being equal, but that is not the case, she said. "Even if the border opens quickly there will be a long recovery period. This has scared the hell out of investors."