The farm income forecast for Saskatchewan producers paints a bleak picture for many producers in 2005, even accounting for a partial recovery in the cattle industry when the U.S. border reopens on March 7 of this year.

The forecast was released on Thursday by the federal Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada department, estimating what the income picture will look like for farmers this year, including crop receipts, livestock receipts, total market receipts and program payments.

For crop receipts, the numbers for the prairie provinces will decline in 2005 due to the weakness in the grain and oilseeds markets, and the general poor quality of the harvest.

The forecast for Saskatchewan is for income to drop by nine per cent from 2004, and by 11 per cent from the 1999-03 average. Crop receipts are forecast to total $3.076 billion, down from $3.373 billion in 2004, but up from $2.743 billion in 2003.

Livestock receipts are forecast to improve by 19 per cent over last year, going from $1.433 billion in 2004 to $1.702 billion in 2005. This is also a 10 per cent improvement over the 1999-03 average.

While an improvement is forecast, offsetting factors include that the U.S. will only open the border for live cattle under 30 months of age, and has delayed opening the border for older cull cattle. In addition, all hog exports to the U.S. will carry an anti-dumping duty, although a decision is expected early in 2005 about whether this will remain in place for the year. With the duty in place, hog receipts are forecast nationally to decline by 13 per cent in 2005, while cattle and calf receipts should increase by 40 per cent.

Net cash income, which is a measure of the cash available to producers for living expenses, loan repayment and reinvestment in the farm, is forecast to be $409.7 million, a decrease of 44 per cent from 2004's level of $737.3 million. This is also a 68 per cent decline from the 1999-03 average of $1.286 billion.

The total net income in Saskatchewan, which accounts for changes in on-farm inventory, will particularly take a beating in 2005, forecast at a negative $641.5 million, a decline of 204 per cent from 2004's level of 615.1 million, and a drop of 256 per cent from 2003's level of $707.3 million.